Olmo will present his work “How do researchers interpret the outcomes of multiple studies?” at the second workshop on Perspectives on Scientific Error, in Groningen, the Netherlands.
Abstract: We investigated how researchers assess the validity of a theory when they are presented with the results of multiple studies that all test that theory. We find that researchers’ belief in the theory increases with the number of significant outcomes and that replication type and the respondent’s role do not affect response patterns. In addition, we look at individual researcher data and find that only a handful of participants use the normative approach of Bayesian inference and that the majority of participants use vote counting approaches. These results highlight that researchers make structural errors when assessing papers with multiple outcomes.